Writing

Research and essays on prediction markets, data, and systems.

The Loop

Three researchers in three different fields discovered the same thing. Nobody noticed they were saying the same thing....

51 Years, 11 Checkpoints

We locked the parameters, pressed play, and let 51 years of economic history be the judge....

When AI Disagrees With Itself

Multi-model disagreement is the most valuable signal in AI, and almost everyone is throwing it away because they think it's a bug....

The Incomplete Agent

Every AI product shipping today is architecturally shallow. A 50-year-old formula explains why, and what comes next....

The Kalman Economy

The 66-year-old algorithm that makes AI analysis stay alive....

The Man on the Spot

Why "Insiders" are the heroes of prediction markets....

Inflation, the fiscal cancer.

What it is. What it does. Why you can't see it coming. And the early warning system that changes everything....

The Derivative Delusion: What Derivatives Were Built For vs. What CT Thinks They Are

On the difference between speculation and structure...

AI Agents as Market Participants

When Bots Become the Dominant Forecasters...

The Almighty Dollar: How prices know what you don't

On the miracle of knowledge aggregation that nobody appreciates....

The 1% problem

Who actually profits on Polymarket...

Can prediction markets save science?

The Reproducibility Crisis...

The 124x Generalist Advantage

Why Prediction Market Specialists Underperform...

Prediction Markets as Cognitive Prosthetics

Augmenting Human Judgment at Scale...

The Whale Paradox

242,611 traders, 2.68 million positions on Polymarket....

Nothing ever happens

Why 72% of prediction market contracts resolve to NO; first analysed on 161,638 contracts across polymarket and kalshi, then extended to 1.77 million ...

How prediction markets win

If they win....

Why do we predict?

The brain's native business model....

Subscribe for new research and essays.

Subscribe on Substack